[ot-caption title=”Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio and Rand Paul are all trying to make it to the White House in 2016. (via, ABC News)”]

The election season is just getting into full swing.  With the Iowa Caucus on February 1st, 2016, the beginning of the election season has arrived.  From there, candidates will move onto New Hampshire followed soon after by South Carolina, Nevada, and Washington.  These candidates are spending long hours and millions of dollars doing whatever they can to lock up these early states in the primaries, so they can have the best chance to represent their party in the general elections.  The polls in Iowa show a solid race on both sides.  For the Republicans, Trump leads the pack with 30.9% followed by 25.9% for Cruz, 13.3% for Rubio, 8.3% for Carson, and 4.3% for Bush.  Everyone else is below 4%.  This crowded race has been a surprise for the Republicans, as many expected Donald Trump’s campaign to falter back in the fall.  However, he is still strong going into the start of the primary season in what has been a very strange race so far. Candidates that seem to be far away from traditional party lines, like Trump and Cruz, have been successful.  Many people believe this has been because of public frustration with government, and they want either a radical or a political outsider to try and dismantle the status quo.  The Democrats are also having the same type of unusual race, just with fewer candidates.  Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders has made a surprise surge on a platform of correcting campaign finance reform, fixing wealth inequality, and creating tuition-free public colleges.  He has closed the gap with Former Secretary of State and Former First Lady Hillary Clinton, who was perceived by many as the guaranteed candidate for the Democratic Party.  This has turned out to be much closer than originally imagined with Sanders at 46% and Clinton at 45.8% in the Iowa polls. In the past couple of days candidates from both sides are trying to rapidly gain any sort of boost in Iowa that they can, considering how close it is expected to be. Polls are unpredictable and anything could happen, so the race in Iowa it is worth keeping an eye on.

Prediction: Trump and Clinton

Update: On the Republican side, Cruz won Iowa with Trump in second place and Rubio in third.  On the Democratic side, Clinton barely edged out Sanders but it was ultimately a virtual tie (one delegate difference).

The New Hampshire Primary is occurring just a week after the Iowa Caucus and will also be very exciting.  The lead in both parties by current frontrunners for Iowa is larger, but there are some new challengers in the New Hampshire Primary.  For the Republicans, Donald Trump clearly breaks away from the crowd in New Hampshire with 33.3%, followed by Cruz at 12.6%, Kasich at 11.9%, Rubio at 10.3%, and Bush at 9.4%.This state shows Trump is able to reach out to many different types of conservatives in different regions and with varying beliefs.  His message is being perceived by many as strength and power, and thousands of people are beginning to resonate with him.  This primary is another example of traditional party candidates like Rubio and Bush who were originally projected to be front runners slipping behind more extreme candidates like Trump and Cruz.  The Democrats also have their frontrunner in Iowa breaking away from the rest of the pack.  Sanders is leading by a much higher margin with 53.1% to Clinton’s 39.3%.  He is beginning to break the idea that he is an unelectable socialist who can’t resonate with the Democratic base.  He clearly has the ability to pursue this presidential bid as long as he can make it through the Southern states without too many losses to Clinton.

Prediction:  Trump and Sanders

Super Tuesday is a day where many Southern states along with Minnesota, Colorado, Vermont, and Massachusetts participate in the primary system.  The eight southern states could significantly shift the race.  These states tend to have a stronger core of moderates from both sides, and are therefore more likely to be better performing states for traditional party candidates.  This isn’t to say that these surprise ultra-liberal or conservative candidates can’t win, but if the core parties want to take back the election, this would be the day to do it.  Clinton specifically should benefit big from a mainly southern voting day where she tends to do well because of her moderate-liberal views. These states could put a damper on the success of the Trump, Cruz, and Sanders campaigns while boosting the campaigns of Clinton, Rubio, and Bush, and providing hope for the core party candidates in the grand scheme of the primaries.

Prediction:  Bush and Rubio to win at least 6 of the 12 primaries on Super Tuesday and Clinton to win at least 9 of 12.

It will be a tight race leading down to the conventions.  After the 50 states and many territories vote in the primaries, it will finally be clear which two candidates will be running in the general election.  This whole process begins with the Iowa Caucus, and now that this political machine is moving it won’t stop until we elect a new President of the United States in November.

Prediction:  Rubio and Clinton general election with Hillary becoming the next President of the United States.

Sources: Projects 538, Real Clear Politics, Politico, NY Mag, The Federalist

Photo Source: ABC News